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Thoughts on the upcoming Oscar nominations

I didn't bother watching the Golden Globes last night. It wasn't so much that I was protesting the lack of star presence for the ceremony as I didn't want to subject myself to Billy Bush and company for an hour straight. However, I'm a little more conflicted about the possibility of a canceled or abbreviated Oscar ceremony. On the one hand, I could do without another 4 hours of Bruce Vilanch-penned banter and Chuck Workman montages. Yet I still want the Oscars to be given out this year for one simple reason- I'm almost certain to like the movie that wins Best Picture.

Let me lay it down for you. With all of the major critics and guild awards nominations announced, most of the Oscar prognosticators and handicappers have whittled down this year's possible Best Picture nominees to eight films. They are, in alphabetical order: Atonement, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Into the Wild, Juno, Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men, Sweeney Todd, and There Will Be Blood. Now, let's look at these films again alongside my ratings for them on 10-point scale:

No Country for Old Men- 10
There Will Be Blood- 9
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly- 8
Michael Clayton- 8
Sweeney Todd- 8
Into the Wild- 7
Atonement- 6
Juno- 6

That's right- I enjoyed every single one of the so-called "serious contenders" for Best Picture, with even the least of the bunch being a "pro" for me. Let me tell you something- this almost never happens. Usually, there's at least one bummer in the bunch that sullies the other nominees by association. There's always at least one Crash or Seabiscuit or Finding Neverland or Little Miss Sunshine or The Hours or Babel or (shall I continue? Oh, why not?) A Beautiful Mind or Chocolat or The Green Mile or Elizabeth to piss me off for having possibly nudged a superior film out of the nominations. But not this year, folks. All of the pre-ordained Oscar-grubbing junk like Charlie Wilson's War and The Kite Runner and *snort* Elizabeth: The Golden Age has more or less been dropped from contention.

How rare is this? Consider that the last Best Picture crop that was, if not necessarily all killer, then at least no bullshit filler was a full decade ago, with the 1997 nominees As Good As It Gets, The Full Monty, Good Will Hunting, L.A. Confidential and Titanic. No masterpieces in the lot- though L.A. Confidential has its share of moments- but all solid choices.

But what's even better is that two of the serious players in the Best Picture race are better than anything from 1997's memorable class. Better still is that No Country for Old Men, a bona fide masterpiece, is considered to be the front-runner. If you want to find another honest-to-goodness masterpiece that got nominated for Best Picture, you've got to go back to Pulp Fiction.

Now, I realize that the Oscars are a sketchy barometer of quality at best. But consider that much of our investment in awards of this kind has to do with the idea that they can validate our own tastes. Having our favorite films competing for awards gives us something to root for. In other words, it's nice to be able to really root for a movie I love instead of complaining that none of my favorites made the cut the way I do most other years. Now, if only the Short Films branch would nominate Everything Will Be OK, I'd be all kinds of giddy.

Stuff

- Thanks to all who congratulated me on the Screengrab gig. It's actually my first paying job writing about cinema, so it should be a learning experience at least. The good news is that Bilge Ebiri has been pretty cool to work for thusfar, and unless I start fucking up there should be no reason why that should change. I'm even going to have a weekly column every Thursday, entitled "The Movie Moment" (sort of a last-minute compromise title), about scenes I love. My first Moment was from Frank Tashlin's THE GIRL CAN'T HELP IT (1956), which everyone really ought to see. I'm also "live"-blogging the Oscars™- the quotation marks are due to the fact that Screengrab only posts Monday through Friday. All the same, I'll write as I watch and then send in more or less everything I've written afterwards. It's like watching the Oscars™ with me... only, y'know, not.

- And speaking of Oscars™, I also posted a partial list of prediction on Screengrab Wednesday as my introductory post. But in case you missed it, here's the full list:

Picture- Babel (ugh)
Director- Scorsese
Actor- O'Toole
Actress- Mirren
Supporting Actress- Hudson
Supporting Actor- Arkin
Original Screenplay- Babel
Adapted Screenplay- The Departed
Animated Feature- Cars
Art Direction- Pan's Labyrinth
Cinematography- Children of Men
Costume Design- Marie-Antoinette
Documentary Feature- An Inconvenient Truth
Documentary Short Subject- Rehearsing a Dream (I have no idea what this is about, but winners in this category always have titles like this)
Editing- Babel
Foreign-Language Film- Pan's Labyrinth
Makeup- Pan's Labyrinth
Score- The Queen
Song- "Our Town," Cars
Animated Short Subject- Lifted
Live-Action Short Subject- Binta and the Great Idea
Sound Effects Editing- Flags of Our Fathers
Sound Mixing- Dreamgirls
Visual Effects- Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

- Aside from the Rivette retrospective in April, the Wexner Film/Video event I'm most looking forward to this spring is the Jim Henson series next month. All the biggies are here, of course- The Muppet Movie, The Dark Crystal, and Labyrinth- but they also have a bunch of rarities and behind the scenes stuff scheduled, plus Henson's one stab at Oscar, TIME PIECE, of which I believe this guy is a big fan. Should be pretty much un-missable.

- Finally, just wanted to announce that all of the individual pages are up at the Muriel Awards web site. So if you want to see how everyone voted, get there now before someone second-guesses his votes and asks for them to be taken down...

Oscar nominations

The only real surprise is that there aren't any real surprises. MUNICH got in after all, which tells me something political is in the air out in Hollywood- something that says we need to address serious worldly issues instead of worrying about crowd-pleasing hits. Oh man, are the conservative pundits going to have a field day...

Hey, I just noticed... One awesome surprise is that "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" got a best song nomination. Not that it's that great a song ("Whoop That Trick" is much cooler), but it's still pretty awesome that they went for it. Hope Terrence wears his wife-beater and DJay pendant when he's onstage.

BEST PICTURE
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Munich
My thoughts: Guess it didn't matter that MUNICH wasn't a big hit, or that it wasn't as huggable as Spielberg's previous Oscar-nominated films. Maybe they just realized that WALK THE LINE, music and performances aside, just wasn't anything special.

BEST DIRECTOR
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
Paul Haggis, Crash
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Bennett Miller, Capote
Steven Spielberg, Munich
My thoughts: Wow, how creative- all five best picture nominees also got nominated here. No "critic's choice" shout-out like we've had pretty much every year for the past decade. Were they even trying? Also, I really wish people would stop saying that CAPOTE is a debut. Bennett Miller directed a documentary called THE CRUISE in 1998. Sure, it's not a respectable Hollywood movie, but it doesn't matter- he's made a feature before CAPOTE, so stop acting as though he didn't. And hey, I called the Spielberg picture/director combo- just not, ya know, officially.

BEST ACTOR
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Terrence Howard, Hustle and Flow
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck
My thoughts: Just because I didn't predict Howard here doesn't mean I didn't have a good idea he'd make it. The guy's been out there, making the rounds, pressing the flesh, showing up in magazines and the like. And it's worked. Crowe didn't really do this, so he's out. My Daniels prediction was as much an attempt to shake things up as anything else. I hate predicting cookie-cutter nominations, but the voters don't seem to mind them at all. At least Howard got nominated for the right movie.

BEST ACTRESS
Dame Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman, TransAmerica
Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice
Charlize Theron, North Country
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
My thoughts: So they went with Charlize. Whoopdie frickin' doo. At least I called Keira. And yeah, Allen was a long shot (early release, low on precursors), but again, couldn't bore myself with obvious picks.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
George Clooney, Syriana
Matt Dillon, Crash
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
William Hurt, A History of Violence
My thoughts: Good job Academy only giving CRASH one nomination. Good job Hurt (and the hype-sters) on getting the Beatrice Straight Award for memorable acting in five minutes. I love the movie, but I thought Harris was worthier than Hurt. But that's just me.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Junebug
Catherine Keener, Capote
Frances McDormand, North Country
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
My thoughts: Looks like the early screeners for JUNEBUG did the trick- voters received DVDs back in November for it, and they got to watch them early before the others rolled in, for a movie that might otherwise be consigned to the bottom of the stack. Smart thinking, guys. In other news, McDormand gets nominated for supporting a lead actress nominee (and, admittedly, for playing a very bait-y role). And what does Maria Bello have to do to get recognized here? Hurt turns up for five minutes and gets in, while Bello gives one of the year's most searing performances and she stays home? Was it the 69 scene, guys? Was it the cheerleader getup?

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Match Point
The Squid and the Whale
Syriana
My thoughts: Hey, look at me predict them all. I'd feel prouder if this category wasn't so easy to predict.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
The Constant Gardener
A History of Violence
Munich
My thoughts: Once again, an easy 5 for 5.

More analysis/armchair quarterbacking to come, probably.

Oscar nomination predictions

Well, I actually intend to get up around 8 AM tomorrow, which is pretty unheard of for me, but I always like to watch the Oscar nominations get announced and then write about them on the blog. As such, I figured it would be good to put my predictions up, to serve as more grist for tomorrow's piece. Nothing like waiting until the last minute. I included a few "surprise" nominations, mostly because they always seem to have a few. If they always went for the obvious then they'd be the BFCS, and there'd be no need to predict.

The predictions are in order of how sure I am they'll be nominated.

BEST PICTURE
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck
Crash
Walk the Line
Capote
My thoughts: 1996 redux! Modestly-budgeted critics' faves dominate in the absence of world-beating Hollywood fare. WALK THE LINE makes it, since it's a crowd-pleaser, but how much love is it getting? I honestly can't see what might sneak in... A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE? Awesome as it is, it's "edgier" than they go for, even in a year like this.
Where's Munich?: If the movie was a bigger hit, I'd include it here, but it's not doing especially well at the box office. Also, it's not a very huggable movie- BROKEBACK may be controversial, but it's also a movie fans can embrace emotionally, whereas MUNICH fans are more apt to engage with that film in a political or intellectual way, or to groove on the Spielberginess of it, Armond White-style. The Academy only recognizes a Spielberg movie when it's a mainstream AND critical success. Another thing is that it's not an actor's movie- considering most of the AMPAS is comprised of actors, that's a problem. Plus Spielberg already has three Oscars as well as an honorary, so he isn't exactly overdue.

BEST DIRECTOR
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
Paul Haggis, Crash
David Cronenberg, A History of Violence
Peter Jackson, King Kong
My thoughts: Lee and Clooney are the only real locks here (look for a possible Clooney upset for director come Oscar night). Haggis could fall by the wayside if the film is perceived as primarily an actors' showcase (much like AS GOOD AS IT GETS in 1997), and if this happens I can see Bennett Miller getting bumped up for CAPOTE. Cronenberg is in the critics'-fave spot previously occupied by Lynch (MULHOLLAND DR.), Almodovar (TALK TO HER), Meirelles (CITY OF GOD), and Leigh (VERA DRAKE), although I can see Allen possibly taking the spot too- though without a Weinstein behind him a la BULLETS OVER BROADWAY it'll be tough. Jackson is an out-of-nowhere prediction- they clearly like the guy, and KONG is an ambitious epic production that was miles better than it had any right to be. When they choose two non-best-picture nominees in this category, the second tends to be more mainstream. Spielberg only gets in if MUNICH gets picture, and I don't see that happening (see above); likewise, Mangold contents himself with a best picture nod. Although if they'll nominate Peter (THE FULL MONTY) Cattaneo anything's possible...

BEST ACTOR
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck
Jeff Daniels, The Squid and the Whale
My thoughts: Hoffman has it sewn up, barring a late minute surge by Ledger (star of the best pic frontrunner) or Phoenix (the only previous nominee in the bunch, and who could possibly be a safe, "straight" choice for older voters). Strathairn makes it on the GOOD NIGHT groundswell, although he could pull a Giamatti and end up staying home, since Murrow isn't an especially deep or show-offy role. Crowe and Howard are possiblities, but Crowe may still be seen by many as a phone-throwing thug (who already has gotten plenty of Oscar love) and Howard is playing a pimp/rapper (Eminem's best song win in '02 aside, are they ready for rap?). I predict Daniels (despite category fraud) for being hilarious and for making the most of a quasi-comeback role, although he would be a surer thing if he had a studio with a proven Oscar track record behind him, instead of Samuel Goldwyn films.

BEST ACTRESS
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Felicity Huffman, TransAmerica
Dame Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice
Joan Allen, The Upside of Anger
My thoughts: Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz... so many good female performances this past year, and none of them are listed above. Anyway... Reese, Felicity and the Dame are in, given their dominance of the critics' and guild awards thusfar. It gets tricky after that, but even then it's not all that interesting. I'm getting Knightley gets the PYT nod over Zhang Ziyi, since in the clips I've seen of MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA I've yet to see anything from Zhang that would justify anything but a nomination for Best Art Direction. And this category is typically friendly to previous nominees and comedic performances, and Allen fits in both aspects. Charlize Theron could make it instead, but NORTH COUNTRY didn't make much of a dent in the public consciousness. Still, you never know.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
George Clooney, Syriana
Matt Dillon, Crash
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
Terrence Howard, Crash
My thoughts: Some have predicted Gyllenhaal to get snubbed here, but I don't think so- I say he rides BROKEBACK's frontrunner status to a nod here. Giamatti and Clooney are givens- the former as a consolation prize for last year, the latter as a "best in show" for SYRIANA as well as an attaboy for a good year all around. And I'd have to say Dillon's pretty safe too, since he tends to get singled out from the CRASH cast for his performance. Howard gets singled out quite a bit, though he's here just as much for HUSTLE AND FLOW as for the Haggis film. Although I can see anyone from Bob Hoskins (MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS) to William Hurt (A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE) to Donald Sutherland (PRIDE & PREJUDICE) sneaking in there. Why didn't they campaign Jeff Daniels in this category? He could've cleaned up.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Catherine Keener, Capote
Maria Bello, A History of Violence
Thandie Newton, Crash
My thoughts: One thing to remember with the supporting actress category is that voters tend to favor supporting female turns that "support" another nominate-able performance, so this category is heavy with nominations for films that feature multiple Oscar-worthy actors. Who benefits here? Williams has critical plaudits and showy scenes in her favor, but Keener's role is much more low-key (not usually the Academy's thing), so playing a real person in a movie that stars the best actor front-runner is of great help. Newton also benefits (I hate to call it "coattailing") since she gives the most notable female performance in an actor- and Oscar-friendly film, despite a lack of previous awards this season. Weisz and Bello (along with Williams) have garnered much of the critical attention of late, squeezing out Amy Adams, whose film might be judged too small, and whose performance might be seen as the film's whole raison d'etre, to make the cut here. Frances McDormand could always get nominated for NORTH COUNTRY (she has a history with the Academy, after all), but unless Theron gets a best actress nod I don't see it happening.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Match Point
The Squid and the Whale
Syriana
My thoughts: CRASH and GOOD NIGHT make it on the virtue of being best picture nominees, and MATCH POINT gets in for being Academy-fave Woody Allen's "comeback" effort. SQUID has gotten the lion's share of critics' awards, which means more in this category than it would in one of the higher-profile ones. SYRIANA seems the tenuous of the lot, given the 11th-hour category switcheroo ruling- who knows how many adapted screenplay votes got invalidated as a result? If SYRIANA suffers, expect CINDERELLA MAN or (wouldn't this be awesome) THE 40 YEAR OLD VIRGIN to step into its place.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Munich
A History of Violence
The Constant Gardener
My thoughts: The Academy likes when acclaimed authors write screenplays (Arthur Miller, anyone? John Irving?), so BROKEBACK (Larry McMurtry) and MUNICH (Tony Kushner) ought to get nominated on that basis alone. Likewise, CAPOTE gets the nod to match its best picture nomination, and HISTORY OF VIOLENCE its best director. Finally, THE CONSTANT GARDENER steps into SYRIANA's spot as the political, convoluted liberal-guilt offering in the category (although I like both films a great deal, which doesn't hurt). If the writers wish to go another way, there's always PRIDE & PREJUDICE, which distilled the classic novel into a workable two hours, although much of the attention has been given to the direction and performances rather than the adaptation. Beyond that, I just don't know...

How will I do? Tune in tomorrow and see!